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c1ue's avatar

A good writeup but flawed due to its core arguments.

The first flaw: Bitcoin is not money and will never be money. Money is entirely a phenomenon of the law (Good for all debts public and private) and bitcoin is the opposite of law. Transaction cost and capacity is an issue but is secondary to the reality that Bitcoin <> currency.

The second flaw : The assumption that bitcoin is orthogonal to the establishment. That may have been true 5 years ago; it is not true now. Bitcoin is being supported via CUSIP for HNWs - the HNWs themselves are largely the establishment.

The above then points to the unlikelihood of the remaining attacks: government won't because the PMCs and oligarchs have no interest in doing so. Hedge funds won't succeed because they would be opposed by other hedge funds and CUSIP institutions.

As for other secondary and tertiary benefits: privacy/crime. The reality is that if any government really wanted to crack down - they'd institute a Great Wall of China type setup. That would be the end of cryptocurrency in that country's internet = that country. Throw in some egregious cell phone surveillance and the net is complete.

However, this is not to say Bitcoin cannot have value ... as nerd art. If people are willing to pay millions for a painting or an old Ferrari, I don't see why they couldn't (not must, but could) pay tens or hundreds of thousands for a bitcoin.

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air dog's avatar

It is a beautiful dream, like liberty itself. I'm not really a "disappointed libertarian"; my expectations were always low, and they continue to plummet. The price of liberty is just too damn high. Five minutes of vigilance seems a lot to expect nowadays.

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